When is enough enough? According to The New York Times, the deaths of at least 66 soldiers, Marines, sailors and airmen have made July the deadliest-ever month for American troops in the nine-year war in Afghanistan. The tally includes six American service members who died in four separate attacks in southern Afghanistan on Thursday and Friday.
“The growing toll follows a sharp increase in the American troop commitment that now stands at 95,000, along with a concerted effort by Taliban militants to slow major NATO offensives in the Taliban heartlands of southern Afghanistan. At least 265 American troops have died this year. The Web site icasualties.org… reported 63 American deaths for July; a NATO official confirmed 3 additional American deaths on Friday.
Afghan casualties are rising as well, undercutting the support of Afghan society and complicating the military mission. In Kabul on Friday, a crowd of hundreds of Afghans rioted after a sport utility vehicle carrying American Embassy contractors struck a car of Afghans, killing at least three of them, the Afghan police said.”
And according to the reports, the crowd chanted “Death to America” and “Death to foreigners.”
I supported the troop-buildup in Afghanistan. I didn’t think we should have abandoned something just because the going got tough. We knew things would get worse, and indeed it has. The Taliban’s control over the northern Afghan region is only growing. Al-Qaeda has escaped our grasp and have fled into neighboring nations, mainly Pakistan. And worst of all, the civilian Karzai government is losing control over the area, and fast.
The western-supported government is unpopular as ever, and popular opinion is swinging to the Taliban. As Obidullah Khan, an Uzbek tribal elder in Dahana-i-Ghori said, “to be honest, the people prefer the Taliban.”
This is not everyday bad news. We need to start thinking pragmatically. I’m going to say it now: Afghanistan is unwinnable. By any means, this is not a premature declaration: this has been America’s longest war, longer than Vietnam and World War II. It’s hard to hear, but that doesn’t mean we escape now with no conditions. What it does mean is that we need to start thinking compromise. Our best bet to have some kind of “victory” in Afghanistan would be to broker a deal with the Taliban to withdraw in exchange for a coalition government of some kind, and get the hell out.
This is the Taliban’s country. Fighting them on their own ground, when they can appear in disguise, can terrify residents by night if not by day, and fight and then melt away into the netherworld of mountains and valleys is all but impossible. And as the occupation fails to secure popular support (and after ten years and a deeply corrupt government in Kabul, who can blame the Afghans?), the counter-insurgency model becomes even less plausible than it was before.
We owe our troops a strategy that honors their commitment, not one in which they fight an enemy that they can’t see, against a ruthless enemies who use civilian deaths as propaganda victories. It’s a lose-lose situation. But withdrawal now is an untenable position, policy-wise and politically.
Think about it.
We pull out, let the Taliban and Al-Qaeda come back to power and invade Pakistan. The region immediately de-stablizes, other Arab nations are at risk, including oil-exporters that hold our economy’s fate in their hands. What about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? And above all, increased chances of terror attacks in the US are likely.
We need to be real. We need to expect that the level of terror will not be zero. We need to know that all occupations are triggers for Islamic radicalization, and that while we want to protect our nation from terror, sending 100,000 troops to nation-build an un-buildable country is over-zealous and unrealistic.
We must realize the impossibility of an effective counter-insurgency when the government itself is corrupt and part of the problem. But we need realize something else above all: at a certain point, it’s not our problem. We need to strike a palatable compromise with the Taliban that can ensure some kind of stability, and a pursue minimalist strategy that involves draw-downs of troops and lowering of defense investments in the region.
It’s time to do the right thing. And it’s time for the President to realize the wholly unattractive truth that we can’t win in Afghanistan, and act soon.
Our troops can’t wait any longer.
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