Written for KNBR.com…
First, it was Pete Carroll’s move to the Pacific Northwest, then Mark McGwire’s admitted to steroid use, and Lane Kiffin was named as the new head coach of Trojans football. All this week, the University of Southern California has warranted both local and national media attention. In the cacophony of news about the school, it might be easy to forget that there are still games to be decided in the NFL playoffs this weekend. It takes a lot for the most popular sport in America to be “second page” news, especially during its post-season, but such has been the fate of the National Football League for the past few days.
Who would have guessed that the Seattle Seahawks would ever receive this much press coverage? But this blog is not meant to talk about how Carroll is avoiding NCAA sanctions, or ask whether Kiffin will have similar success as head coach, or analyze McGwire’s comments to Bob Costas (or his apparent lack of a neck, for that matter). Instead, I want to refocus the attention on professional pigskin and discuss the upcoming divisional playoffs. After all, there are many appealing story lines and characters in each of the four matchups.
Here are some thoughts on each of the games, starting with Saturday’s contests:
Arizona Cardinals AT New Orleans Saints. Saturday, 1:30 PM
“There should have been a facemask call!” That is what fans in the entire state of Wisconsin were shouting at their television sets on the final play of the game last weekend, when Aaron Rodgers lost the ball and Karlos Dansby rumbled into the endzone for the win. The 51-45 final was the highest combined score in NFL playoff history and until Rodgers’ late gaff, both quarterbacks had career-defining (or career-altering) performances. The overtime score helped the Cardinals advance to this week, where the play the top-seeded Saints in New Orleans.
Much was made of the fact that Warner threw five touchdowns and only four incompletions against the Packers, but regardless of statistics, the 38-year-old quarterback probably had the first or second most quality outing of his post-season football career. It would be foolish to expect a duplicate performance on Saturday, much less a win for Arizona. The reason? Teams that play in overtime games lose the following game at a much higher rate. So yes, Warner completed 88 percent of his passes and threw for 379 yards last week, but they might still be without wide receiver Anquan Boldin who, according to ESPN, did not practice Thursday. Two other factors are rest and the game’s location, both of which put the Cardinals at a disadvantage.
The Saints defense isn’t too special this season, but they have only allowed about 21 points each week throughout the season and are rested because of the bye week. Also, they have the best point differential in the league this year. What’s more, against a Cardinals defense that surrendered 45 last week and was frankly lucky to escape Glendale with the W, Drew Brees could really inflict some damage. 
This season, Brees has only thrown for fewer than 200 yards three times when he has been the team’s leading passer (at Buffalo, versus the New York Jets and at Tampa Bay). But in each of those games, the leading rusher has gained at least 86 yards, and in one instance Pierre Thomas had 126 on the ground. An argument can be made that New Orleans will not enter Saturday’s game with momentum because they were losers of their final three. There are those who will point out that Arizona has the advantage because they will carry over their energy from the close win against Green Bay. Ultimately, I feel like once you get into the playoffs, teams don’t dwell on what happened in the regular season (or even the week before). For that reason, the better team is the Saints and I’ll go with them to win in the Superdome on Saturday.
Baltimore Ravens AT Indianapolis Colts. Saturday, 5:15 PM
What immediately comes to mind when I think of these two franchises is the sneaky attempt to move the Colts out of Baltimore in the middle of the night many years ago. 
Since that time, Indianapolis has become one of the premier teams in the NFL, and four-time MVP Peyton Manning is the anchor of that offense. Manning delivers his dry humor in various commercials during Sunday football broadcasts, but on the field, he has enjoyed great success delivering the ball to wide receivers and tight ends from Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison to Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. Earlier in the season, former head coach Tony Dungy basically said that having Manning on the team was like having a player-coach. That is not something most can say, especially at this level, but Peyton puts extra effort into working with new players. Enjoy him while he’s there, Indy, but Heaven help you when he retires.
At 14-2 this season, many people are picking Indianapolis to make it to Miami on February 7, and with good reason. Manning has throw for 4,500 yards this year and Wayne has caught one hundred passes for only the second time in his nine-year career. He had 104 receptions in 2007, the year of the Colts’ most recent Super Bowl victory. With such a prolific offense, one thing that the Colts have been criticized for in the past has been their lack of a strong defense. But the most points the defense allowed this season was to the Patriots on Sunday Night Football, when New England scored 34. That was also the closest the Colts came to losing before falling to the Jets in Week 16. It was also the night of the infamous fourth-and-two call by Bill Belichick. When looking at three of the best quarterbacks in recent memory – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger – Manning clearly stands out as the most consistent in terms of winning and helping his team to playoff appearances. Even against a tough Ravens’ defense, the Colts should not have trouble advancing to face either the Chargers or Jets for the AFC Championship.
On the Ravens’ side of things, Joe Flacco did not really experience a sophomore slump, as some might have predicted. Despite going 4-for-10 in passing last week, running back Ray Rice saved the day with his legs against New England, 
rushing for a 83-yard touchdown on the games opening play. I will admit that I picked the Patriots last week, mainly because I felt like they held a distinct home field advantage, having gone undefeated through 2009 in Gillette Stadium. I also wondered whether owner Robert Kraft would consider renaming the field “Giselle Bündchen and Tom Brady Field at Gillette Stadium” should Brady win his fourth Lomardi Trophy. It would be like Nell and John Wooden Court at Pauley Pavilion at UCLA. But the Ravens knocked the AFC East champs out, crushing them 33-14. Much like with the Cardinals, do not expect the same result Saturday night. Obviously the offense will need more than a forty percent completion rate from Flacco, but even if he replicates his season average of 63.1 percent, the Colts will still find a way to win. One of the only ways in which Baltimore moves on to Week Three of the playoffs is by defeating the Colts by a large margin, which won’t happen. Early in the season, the Ravens lost three of four, all by ten points or less. In Week 11 of the regular season, the Colts won by two (17-15) over Baltimore, and the Ravens other two losses came at Green Bay and at Pittsburgh by a combined ten points. Including this year’s playoffs, all of the Ravens wins this season were by an average of 18.8 points, and I don’t expect the contest to be closer on Saturday. I’ll take the Colts to advance to the Championship Week.
Dallas Cowboys AT Minnesota Vikings. Sunday, 10:00 AM
Personality-wise, Wade Phillips and Brad Childress are perhaps the two most ordinary, vanilla coaches in professional football today. You could say that Bill Belichick is short with the media, but we have seen him be engaging at charity events and other functions. Norv Turner of the Chargers scores pretty low on the entertaining meter as well (we’ll get to his team shortly). Both Phillips and Childress seem generally flat, whether on the sidelines or in press conferences. It is a good thing that they have two of the most entertaining teams in terms of storylines in this year’s playoffs. The resurgence of Brett Favre, forty-year-old edition, is unbelievable. 
Number four has thrown for 33 touchdowns this year and has essentially discovered the fountain of youth by wearing the Viking purple. Also, the future Hall of Famer is without question an upgrade over Gus Frerotte in 2008, who threw more picks (15) than touchdowns (12) (sense the sarcasm?). Part of Favre’s success should certainly be attributed to the talent that surrounds him. Sure, he had Donald Driver to throw to at Lambeau and Ryan Grant was in the Green Bay backfield toward the end of Favre’s time there. But nobody can dispute the fact that Adrian Peterson is the best running back in football right now (sorry, Chris Johnson) and with Jared Allen anchoring the defense, I would not be surprised to see Minnesota in Florida come February.
Jerry Jones got his long-awaited playoff win last week, and Tony Romo may finally be able to start shaking off the criticism that he can’t win important games. The entire city of Dallas (and the state of Texas) thanks you, Jessica Simpson. But my advice to the Dallas fan base is to proceed with caution into this week. The Cowboys are the hot pick to keep their momentum going through the Divisional portion of the playoffs. 
Remember though that this game is not being played in Jerry’s amusement park of a stadium and no recent Cowboys team has experience playing even this deep into the playoffs. Prior to last Saturday, the Cowboys had not reached the second round of the post-season since Bill Clinton was in the White House. With young receivers like Miles Austin and key players like Jason Witten offensively, Romo might be able to establish a rhythm. Also, don’t discount what people have been saying about the absence of guys like Terrell Owens. It is no coincidence that with T.O. out of the Lone Star State, it actually gives the Cowboys a better chance to win. Still, I would not be shocked if Dallas comes out flat in Minnesota and is not able to come back from an early deficit. I will take Minnesota here, and my NFC Championship Game prediction is the Vikings and the Saints.
New York Jets AT San Diego Chargers. Sunday, 1:40 PM
“LaDainian Tomlinson is getting old! Philip Rives talks too much! Norv Turner is not a premier head coach!” There are a myriad of reasons to pick to New York Jets to upset the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, and those are but three. All are legitimate criticisms at some level. The fact is, however, that while they started slow (2-3 through the first five games), 
San Diego has won its last eleven games and outscored opponents by an average of 13 points per game through 2009. That stretch was highlighted by 29-point victories over Denver and Kansas City (granted they were subpar teams) and a 25-point win over Tennessee on the road. Tomlinson never ran for one hundred yards in a single game this season, but he also didn’t need to reach that number. Instead, Rivers, the sixth year quarterback out of North Carolina State was given the task of controlling the offense more than anyone else this season for the Chargers, and he was able to find open receivers almost every week. His favorite targets were tight end Antonio Gates and wideout Vincent Jackson, and that won’t change against the Jets. The Bolts have been explosive through the air, and for that reason, expect the Jets defense to try to make San Diego run the football. Should the Chargers be able to make it past New York, right now I believe they can make it to the Super Bowl no matter would they would face in the Championship round.
WARNING: rash, possibly unwarranted statement coming up. Resist the urge to hit your computer screen or any nearby person when you read the next sentence. In some ways, rookie Mark Sanchez reminds me of Joe Namath… In no way am I comparing their playing styles or their levels of success, but I think there is the same brashness with both Willy Joe and “the Sanchize”. Fans certainly got a sense that head coach Rex Ryan is overly confident in his team (bordering on cocky) when he claimed that the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl this year. 
Essentially, he is the anti-Bill Belichick, the anti-Wade Phillips and the anti-Brad Childress. Perhaps that is what is needed in a media market like New York, but also keep in mind that the louder a head coach proclaims of his team’s greatness, the harder he falls after a defeat. Similar to the Cowboys-Vikings, the Jets play the role of Dallas in this game: a team with less experience, both in the playoffs and in terms of their quarterback. If given the choice between a signal caller who has played for the conference championship in the pros or a rookie who had only one year in the college game, I’ll take the former. Because of that, I will pick the Chargers to win at Qualcomm on Sunday and face the Colts next week at Lucas Oil Stadium.
All games can be heard this weekend on KNBR 680!
Popularity: 1%