Thursday witnessed the crowning of a new National Champion in the college ranks with Alabama’s win in Pasadena. As the calendar turns to 2010, college football now relinquishes center stage to the professionals of the National Football League. The Wild Card portion of the playoffs start on Saturday and by Sunday, February 7, a new team will have claimed the Lombardi Trophy. Perhaps the most important thing to remember for this weekend is that three of the games are repeats of last week’s action. The only teams playing that did not face each other last week are Baltimore and New England. Here are some thoughts about the pair of contests on Saturday.
New York Jets (9-7) AT Cincinnati Bengals (10-6). Saturday 1:30:
This was the final regular season Sunday Night Football game of the year and the last contest played at the Meadowlands for the Jets. New York was playing very well last week and cruised to the 37-0 shutout victory, but the setting shifts to Cincinnati’s Paul Brown Stadium for Saturday, where the Bengals are 6-2 on the season. With Carson Palmer at the helm for Marvin Lewis, the former USC Trojan has been able to put together some very impressive series to win games in close situations. The most startling victory for the “Cardiac Cats” (as coined by Gus Johnson), came early in the season, in a 23-20 overtime win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals will want to keep the scoreboard close on Saturday. Exempting the 45-10 win against the Chicago Bears in October, each of the team’s other nine wins have been decided by less than a touchdown. The team has certainly endured more than their share of grief over the course of the year, with the death of Mike Zimmer’s wife following by the passing of wide receiver Chris Henry; so one assumes that Ochocinco and Company will be playing with emotion.
As for the Jets, I think they are one of the surprise squads in this year’s playoffs. After squandering for more than a few seasons at the quarterback position, New York may have found their offensive future in the arm of Mark Sanchez. Consider the fact that Chad Pennington was never overly reliable and prone to injury. In 2008, the team basically landed Brett Favre because he was not allowed to sign with the team he really wanted until this year, so that situation was essentially a rent-a-QB. With time, fans and media came to realize that deeming number 6 “The San-chise” was about as foolish as expecting the Detroit Lions to win ten games in 2009. A rookie at any position in the NFL will make his mistakes, but being in one of the most critical media markets in the country magnified Sanchez’s troubles. Combine that with having a rookie head coach and being in the same conference as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and it is impressive for the Jets to have made it to the playoffs. But rookie head coaches are prone to mistakes, as well, and it was not smart for Rex Ryan to say that his team should be the favorites to win the Super Bowl in Miami. You can certainly believe that, and you should. It just doesn’t need to become bulletin board material. The Bengals should be able to advance in this game, which pits two former quarterbacks from the University of Southern California.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) AT Dallas Cowboys (11-5). Saturday 5:00:
Over the last month, the dominating storylines concerning the Dallas Cowboys were the size of Jerry Jones’ new Cowboys Stadium and the inability of his team to win in December. Everyone thought that given their opponents, Dallas would face another collapse against tough competition that included the New York Giants, San Diego Chargers and the previously unbeaten New Orleans Saints. Those predictions were not altogether wrong, but Tony Romo helped the Cowboys be the first to beat the Saints and Dallas’s defense has held strong the last two weeks, not allowing a single point to either the Washington Redskins or the Eagles. The new Cowboys Stadium, which has hosted various college football and basketball games, will witness its first playoff contest on Saturday, and that should lend the team some advantage. Still, Romo has yet to win a playoff game in his career, and eventually a fact like that can become a psychological block. While Romo passed for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week, one thing to improve on is third-down efficiency. The Cowboys were 5-of-13 in those situations on January 3.
The question about the Eagles at the beginning of the season was how extensively Andy Reid would integrate Michael Vick into the offense once Roger Goodell lifted his suspension. The answer: Vick was hardly a factor on Sundays, and as has been the case for many years, Donovan McNabb was the one to lead the team to another playoff appearance. The problem for Philadelphia is not usually qualifying for the post-season, but rather making it all the way to the league’s final game. The eleventh year quarterback from Syracuse passed for 3,500-plus yards and 22 touchdowns in 2009, but he was also sacked 35 times. So, if the Dallas defensive line can break through, it might be a tough day for the Eagles. While McNabb is probably the most recognizable piece of the Eagles offense, it is actually a couple of newer talents that have made positive impressions this season. Tight end Brent Celek, in his third year out of Cincinnati, should make an impact on Saturday. He had seven catches for 96 yards last week. DeSean Jackson, who played his college games at California, has racked up 1,167 receiving yards this year, but has not fared particularly well in either game against Dallas in 2009. I’m going with the Cowboys to finally break through with a playoff win in the Romo-era by a field goal.
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) AT New England Patriots (10-6). Sunday, 10:00
There is no in-between with a guy like Tom Brady. As a fan, you either love him or hate him and there is no doubt that those in the latter group were made sick over the announcement that he won the Comeback Player of the Year Award for this season. But those same people can take solace in the fact that the Patriots are “only” 10-6 and that they will not be playing with a full set of offensive starters on Sunday. Coach Belichick had Wes Welker playing well into the game last Sunday, and the decision ultimately resulted in his being injured. Welker will not play in the opening round, and he was their leading receiver in terms of yards and catches. There is a reason teams like the Indianapolis Colts rested their first string even while the entire football world wanted to see them attain perfection: because they had secured everything necessary for a trip to the playoffs. While New England obviously was not in the same position as the Colts, they were in no danger of being knocked out of the playoffs, but they don’t carry much momentum into Sunday, having lost to the Houston Texans, 34-27. Some locker room issues have plagued the team as well, which doesn’t bode well for a return to the Super Bowl this year. Defensively, ESPN.com… is reporting that Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork will both return for the start of the playoffs. There is tremendous home field advantage for the Patriots too, as they are 8-0 at Gillette Stadium this year.
If Joe Flacco didn’t convince every football fan that he was capable of leading an NFL team’s offense last season, he proved to be able to do just that this year. Forget a sophomore slump. On a team that has used a tenacious brand of defense as its calling card throughout the decade, Flacco has thrown for 3,163 yards and 21 touchdowns. Baltimore was able to split the two games they played against the Steelers and actually finished above their conference rival in the final standings. Had it not been for the unexpectedly remarkable season turned in by the Bengals, Baltimore would have won the AFC North. The credit for the playoff-caliber season cannot all go to Flacco, however, as half of his games saw passing statistics of under 200 yards. On the defensive side, Ray Lewis and the rest of the Ravens defense will have to play one of their best games of the season. Despite giving up 33 points to the Minnesota Vikings and 27 points twice, Baltimore has held its opponents to an average of just over 16 points per game this season. The defense has generally fared better against the run than the pass this year. Still, one of the worst pass defense games came at the beginning of the season in a victory, when Phillip Rivers threw for 436 yards but also had two picks. The one time that Baltimore and New England met this year, the Patriots won 27-21. I can’t see the Ravens being able to overcome their 3-5 road record and should get bounced in the first round, even with key injuries for New England.
Green Bay Packers (11-5) AT Arizona Cardinals (10-6). Sunday, 1:40
The Arizona Cardinals were the footnote to what was a great Super Bowl last year, only because they lost to the Steelers. That is usually what happens every season, with the possible exception of the Patriots-Giants game a couple of years ago. Had it not been for David Tyree’s one-handed catch, nobody would remember that the New York Giants took part in the festivities. Many fans of the 49ers might not want to admit that Arizona is a better team, but with a veteran quarterback (Kurt Warner), a league-wide star at wide receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) and emerging talents at the running back position (Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells), they certainly are a cut above the rest of the NFC West. Granted, with the way the Seahawks and Rams have performed in recent years, seemingly the Cardinals’ only competition is San Francisco. Kurt Warner has been in high-pressure playoff situations through his career in St. Louis, and this year that pressure is intensified in the desert to not only reach the Super Bowl, but to actually win the game as well. Warner has completed 66.1 percent of his passes this year and thrown 26 touchdowns, and he has a complement of young players around him on offense. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have allowed nearly three touchdowns (20.3 points) per game. It will be the arm of Warner, the hands of Fitzgerald and the legs of Wells that determine whether Arizona can advance.
The 2009 season signaled the second season for Aaron Rodgers as starting quarterback in Green Bay. The NFC North was the most discussed division in football to start the year. Rodgers was no longer holding Brett Favre’s clipboard, Favre himself was carrying out his wish to spite the Packers by signing with the Vikings, and the Bears thought they finally had a franchise quarterback in Jay Cutler. After Brian Urlacher’s early season injury and Cutler’s underwhelming performance, Chicago was taken out of the equation, and many thought Green Bay would be the favorite to win the division. Insert Favre (circa 1997), Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and Jared Allen zeroing in on the quarterback on defense, and Minnesota emerged as the NFC North champs. Still, the Packers 11-5 record is more than respectable and playing on the turn of Glendale’s University of Phoenix Stadium for the second straight week should open up the offense. Don’t put too much stock in the 33-7 win last week against the Cardinals, because as with most playoff teams, Arizona didn’t play its starters for the whole game. Some say that Green Bay should not be at a disadvantage Sunday, despite playing Rodgers and others for the majority of last week, but even if their playbook is full, the players may not be as rested as possible at kickoff time. The slight edge goes to the Cardinals for me, because of experience with deep playoff runs and rest.
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